New innovation will change the world. But, it will also create a bubble of HOPE.
Bicycle, Trains, and more aka, Third Industrial Revolution changed the world. however it also created bubble.
after watching Ben Felix's video, it might changed your view on Tech stocks.
2021's winning hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman's simple reason why he doesn't invest on Techs.
(Actually Bill Ackman has Agilent Technologies, But it's under the Healthcare sector. don't get confused)
anyone can replace you as a new start up and suddenly, leading company can be replaced.
for example, What happened to IBM? What happened to Motorola? and more.
how about Intel?
Tech changes, and unless you can track the new innovation and you see potential, every single one in the world will like it (AAPL), it's hard to track.
Currently, I'm shrinking Tech stocks, and moving to other sectors.
Maintaining, JAWX and MEGA as is, but my individual Tech Stocks are AAPL, MSFT, QCOM, and few others.
it's hard to predict, and companies like AAPL did really well, but if you were in 1980s you would bought Intel or IBM. Technologies keep change, and think about Peter Lynch's speech.
ARK CEO & CIO, Cathie Wood, and other Hedge funds are betting on TSLA.
Time to ask our self. Should we join the party? or is the party about to end?
the whole stock market is soaring with MP3 (Monetary Policy 3), as long as the Money printing never stops, the asset price will continue soar. However, we all know unemployment rate is steady, and US overall CPI rate is not going up above 2% as the FED wanted to aim.
There are so many aspects to think, and talk about, but I will just cover one little idea. A BRAND everyone knows about. LEVI'S
To save your time, Levi's was introduced during the wild wild west ear, The GOLD rush.
everyone were chasing after the gold, moving to California and digging around. One person thought different. Levi Strauss, went different approach. Basically, lot's of people are heading to California to find Gold. finding gold is a rare case, but there are some people found gold and made money. There are people who are chasing after the great happy ending stories and join the gold rush afterwards.
Levi Strauss observed and saw what everyone needed. Shovel? no pants that can last, JEAN!
I think this is the lesson we can learn from. EV market is already full of gold rush people.
Let's not just chase after EV market, with extra money you won't mind to lose, it's ok to chase after EV stocks. But, always remember, Ken Fisher always reminding us, stocks move for future hope. 3 months to 30 months ahead.
TSLA already got their own chip, data, and services. How about other internal combustion manufacturers? are they just going to die? or they will do something?
Last year, TSLA was on the follower side, and they moved up 2 steps on the contender side.
because, other car companies are lack of data, they can't just go on overnight for self driving vehicles. to insure the safety of passengers and pedestrians, they need to collect data and show to the world that they are safe to be on the road.
just like what Levi Strauss did, think about what other manufacturer need. Don't just think about cars. CAT is working on autonomous vehicles too. DE is also working on it.
What I think, is the LIDAR. Do we need it? IDK. TSLA proved we don't.
But, VLDR, and LAZR are the two potential companies I see.
VLDR products are on CAT, DE, Boston Dynamics, ZOOX (AMZN) and more (Rumor is $100/device)
Always look around the hot stocks, and they are the one actually proving the whole market will boom or not.
EVs, think what is the main goal of EV market, Autonomous driving.
What do you think about Green Energy? Saving Environment? may be..
What is the side affect on all this new saving environment? wind turbine problem
Solar panels, Also can be recycled, however, it's not economic to recycle them.
"Currently, however, recycling cannot be considered the economically favorable option, so economic incentives are required to accelerate this displacement."
companies like, WM or RSG will be benefitted, plus just like everyone needs water in their life, people produce trash.
How about Pots , weed, cannabises stocks? I owned few pot related stocks for short term and sold all. only thing I'm holding is IIPR.
I see too many competition, and too much hope, that government will legalize weed. It could, but there is always chance that will not. So many jobs are still doing drug screening, and lot's of people are turned down after the dug screen. at the end, it's smoking something, and might want to think about health care sectors. XLV or IXJ.
In future, People will work at all? how people will cover spending?
UBI might be the future, Well.. is it socialism? What is it? will it work?
the video covered Pro and Con.
South Korea is already working on it.
after the pandemic, is everything will be the same as before? or people will continue wearing masks, or forcing people to wear masks and work remotely. No one knows, Lot's of guessing games.
Whatever you believe, we all have to prepare and ask, Am I essential? can I be replaced? what are my options?
Politics are politics, but more automation, such as self driving cars.
My guess? wealth will bring more wealth, Poor level people start think they don't have a chance to move to next level, populism will take over the politics.
This graph indicates, where the Government social benefit goes to person. it's on up-trend and recently, it hiked and showing declining trend. However, our govt debt level is high, printing lots of money, and expanded Unemp benefits. back in the time, govt was able to spend the money on infrastructure, new airports, highways, railroads and etc.
however, now days, if things are turning into automation, more people will be laid off from their job, that spending will have to increase more. Money won't circulate the way it should be, but it will be in circulation of paying govt debt (Japan is spending about 30% their annual budget to paying their interest on the debt they issued) and social benefits.
Dr Lacy Hunt''s warning to everyone, United States might go same path as Japan. issue more debt, and not getting enough inflation, growth gets stagnant, and it's a debt trap.
